AIG Insurance stock prices prediction 2013

AIG Insurance stock prediction 2013 : American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is a leading international insurance organization serving customers in more than 130 countries. AIG companies serve commercial, institutional and individual customers through one of the most extensive worldwide property-casualty networks of any insurer. In addition, AIG companies are leading providers of life insurance and retirement services in the United States. AIG Common Stock, par value $2.50 per share (AIG Common Stock), is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, as well as the stock exchanges in Ireland and Tokyo. 

AIG is an insurance conglomerate that spans the globe, but during the great recession like many other giant financial institutions, AIG got itself into a lot of trouble taking on the counter-party risk of mortgage backed securities. During the 4th quarter of 2008, AIG set the world record for reporting the biggest loss. It lost $99.3 billion dollars in a single quarter.

The company currently operates one of the largest insurance networks in the world, with more than 85 million clients in 130 countries. AIG is split into four business divisions: Chartis, SunAmerica Financial Group, Aircraft Leasing, and other operations.

Chartis offers a unique portfolio of insurance products and services. The insurance products are: casualty, property, financial lines, and specialty. Chartis conducts its business through multiple entities such as: New Hampshire Insurance Company, American Home Assurance Company, Lexington Insurance Company, AIU Insurance Company, Chartis Overseas, Fuji Fire & Marine Insurance Company Limited, Chartis Europe Holdings Limited, and Chartis Europe.

SunAmerica Financial Group - offers a comprehensive suite of products such as: term life, universal life, fixed/variable annuities, mutual funds, financial planning. The SunAmerica Financial Group operates under these subsidiaries: American General Life Companies (American General), Variable Annuity Life Insurance Company (Western National), SunAmerica Retirement Markets (SARM).

AIG's other operations primarily consisted of derivatives trading, and aircraft leasing. The other operations: International Lease Finance Corporation, AIG Markets, United Guaranty Corporation, AIG Financial Products, and AIG Trading Group Inc.

Currently AIG generates 91% of its revenue through the SunAmerica Financial Group, and Chartis. 

AIG's current management strategy remains simple: by 2015 achieve return on equity above 10%, generate share growth in mid-teens, grow insurance divisions, and reinvest retained earnings.

AIG aggressively competes with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B), The Travelers Companies (TRV), Chubb (CB), Allstate (ALL), Loews (L), Progressive (PGR), Hartford Financial Services (HIG), CNA Financial (CNA), among many others.

Technical Analysis AIG insurance 2013

The stock has been on a continuous up-trend since November 2012. On 12/24/2012 the stock is between a very narrow symmetrical triangle formation. I anticipate the stock to break out no later than the 26th or 27th, meaning that the stock will be forced to make a major move.

Source: Chart from freestockcharts.com

The stock is trading above the 20-, 50-, and 200- Day Moving Averages. The stock will experience further upside through 2013, as investors have under-bought the growth prospects of the company.

Notable support is $23.00, $27.30, and $30.60 per share.

Notable resistance is $37.50, $46.00, and $60.00 per share.

Street Assessment

Analysts on a consensus basis have high expectations for the company going forward.

Growth Est	AIG	Industry	Sector	S&P 500
Current Qtr.	-113.40%	-99.90%	-93.80%	9.50%
Next Qtr.	-48.50%	-99.80%	-92.70%	15.30%
This Year	266.70%	99.80%	23.30%	7.20%
Next Year	-6.70%	20.80%	6.90%	13.10%
Past 5 Years (per annum)	-42.91%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Next 5 Years (per annum)	21.93%	13.20%	10.60%	8.72%
Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories)	9.41	19.56	13.83	14.69
PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories)	0.43	1.67	0.95	1.41

Source: Table and data from Yahoo Finance

Analysts have high expectations, as analysts on a consensus basis have a 5-year average growth rate forecast of 21.93% (based on the above table). This growth rate is above the industry average for next 5-years (13.20%).

Earnings History	11-Dec	12-Mar	12-Jun	12-Sep
EPS Est	0.63	1.12	0.57	0.86
EPS Actual	0.82	1.65	1.06	1
Difference	0.19	0.53	0.49	0.14
Surprise %	30.20%	47.30%	86.00%	16.30%

Source: Table and data from Yahoo Finance

The average surprise percentage is 44% above analyst forecast earnings over the past four quarters (based on the above table).

Forecast and History AIG Insurance

Year	Basic EPS	P/E Multiple
2003	$ 3.10	21.38
2004	$ 3.77	17.42
2005	$ 4.03	16.93
2006	$ 5.38	13.32
2007	$ 2.40	24.29
2008	$ (37.84)	-
2009	$ (93.69)	-
2010	$ 14.75	3.27
2011	$ 8.60	2.7
2012	$ 3.74	9.41

Source: Table created by Alex Cho, data from shareholder annual report

The EPS figure shows that throughout the 2003-2006 period earnings were growing due to favorable economic conditions. Then the company was adversely affected by the great recession throughout 2007-2009, as the net income rapidly declined, and AIG eventually logged the biggest loss in corporate history. During 2010 the company was able to generate a profit by restructuring the company; this involved selling business units, which inflated earnings by $17.7 billion dollars. Once the United States economy exited the recession in 2010-2012 the company earnings have improved, albeit gradually. In 2011 the abnormal earnings of $8.60 were due to a provisional benefit from taxes worth $18.03 billion dollars. The improvements in net income for 2010-2011 were one-time events and should not be considered a part of the long-term earnings growth trend. So in essence, 2012 is likely to be the most normal year for AIG over the past 5 years.

Source: Table created by Alex Cho, data from shareholder annual report

By observing the chart we can conclude that the business is somewhat cyclical and is affected by macroeconomics. Therefore one of the largest risk factors to AIG is the slowing of international gross domestic product growth. So as long as the global economy continues to grow, the company will generate reasonable returns over a 5-year time span based on the forecast below.

AIG Stock Prices Forecast Next 5 Year

Source: Forecast and table by Alex Cho

By 2018 I anticipate the company to generate $10.19 in earnings per share. This is because of earnings growth, improving global outlook, earnings management and continued development overseas.

The forecast is proprietary, and below is a non-linear chart indicating the price of the stock over the next 5-years.

AIG Stock Chart Forecast Next 5 Year

AIG Stock Chart Forecast Next 5 Year

Source: Forecast and chart by Alex Cho

Below is a price chart incorporating the past 10 years and the next 6 years. Detailing 16 years in pricing based on my forecast and price history on December 31st of each year.

Source: Forecast and chart created by Alex Cho, data from shareholder annual report, and price history is from Yahoo Finance.

*The period 2003-2008 were price quotes based on pre-split stock prices (multiply by 20 to accurately calculate the price of the shares between 2003 and 2008). On 7/01/2009 the stock had a 1:20 split (reverse split).

Investment Strategy AIG Insurance

AIG currently trades at $35.20. I have a price forecast of $37.94 for 2013. AIG is in a long-term up-trend. I anticipate momentum in the price of the stock, as the growth rate offers compelling stock appreciation for the foreseeable future.

Short Term

Over the next twelve months, the stock is likely to appreciate from $35.20 to $38.60 per share. This implies 9.6% upside from current levels. The technical analysis indicates an up-trend (break above the symmetrical triangle formation). While the previously mentioned price forecast using fundamental analysis further supports the trade set-up.

Investors should buy AIG at $35.20 and sell at $38.60 to pocket short-term gains of 9.6% in 2013. This return is pretty measly, meaning that short-term investors would likely do better investing in other opportunities.

Long Term

The company is a great investment for the long-term. I anticipate AIG to deliver upon the price and earnings forecast despite the risk factors (macroeconomic, competition, etc.). AIG's primary upside catalyst is international development, and earnings management. I anticipate the company to deliver upon my forecasted price target of $100.12 by 2018. This implies a return of 185% by 2018. This rate of return is exceptional, considering AIG has a market capitalization of $52B. The extra liquidity makes this a compelling growth investment for institutional investors who require higher liquidity.

Conclusion buy AIG Stock

Buy AIG on long-term growth. AIG has not died off the surface of the earth; it is more stubborn than a roach. The conclusion remains simple: buy AIG.

Articel copyright by Alex cho - published by seekingalpha.com

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Weekly Industrial Alliance (IAG) stock rating prices target

Weekly Industrial Alliance (IAG) stock rating prices target : A number of firms have modified their ratings and price targets on shares of Industrial Alliance (TSE: IAG) recently:

•     Industrial Alliance Insurance had its price target raised by analysts at TD Securities from $34.00 to $38.00. They now have a “hold” rating on the stock.
      Industrial Alliance Insurance had its price target raised by analysts at CIBC from $35.00 to $41.00.
      Industrial Alliance Insurance had its price target raised by analysts at National Bank Financial from $30.00 to $37.00.
      Industrial Alliance Insurance had its price target raised by analysts at RBC Capital from $29.00 to $35.00. They now have a “sector perform” rating on the stock.
• 
      Industrial Alliance Insurance had its “sector underperform” rating reaffirmed by analysts at Scotiabank.
      Industrial Alliance Insurance was upgraded by analysts at National Bank Financial from an “underperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating.
•     Industrial Alliance Insurance was downgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a $40.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $42.00.
•     Industrial Alliance Insurance had its “sector perform” rating reaffirmed by analysts at CIBC. They now have a $11.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $19.00.

Shares of Industrial Alliance opened at 36.40 on Tuesday. Industrial Alliance has a one year low of $20.55 and a one year high of $39.20. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently $35.05. The company has a market cap of $3.309 billion and a P/E ratio of 10.60.

Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. (Industrial Alliance) is a life and health insurance company.

Insurance stock focus today AIG, HIG shares

best insurance stocks today - Insurance stock focus today AIG, HIG shares : Financial Sector of Property & Casualty Insurance Industry stocks are in focus, as its stocks were gaining high volume during the previous trade. American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) remained a top volume gainer in its industry and was showing a negative trend during the previous trading session. Also, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) was in focus of investors and it was showing bearish movement during the previous trade.

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) reported that, for the fourth quarter of 2012, a net loss of $4.0 billion, or $2.68 per diluted share, in comparison to the prior year same quarter net income of $21.5 billion, or $11.31 per diluted share. Net income was $3.4 billion, or $2.04 per diluted share, for the fiscal year 2012 versus the fiscal year 2011 of $20.6 billion, or $11.01 per diluted share.

Financial Sector stock, American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) reported the plunge of -3.62% and closed at $37.06 with the total traded volume of 26.91 million shares. The stock’s opening price was $38.89. The company has a total of 1.48 billion outstanding shares and its total market capitalization is $54.71 billion.

52-week price range of the stock remained $27.18 – $39.90, while during last trade its minimum price was $36.86 and it gained its highest price of $38.93.

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) declared for the fourth quarter 2012, a net loss of $46 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, in comparison to the prior year same duration net income of $118 million, or $0.23 per diluted share.

Property & Casualty Insurance company showing negative momentum during previous trade, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) reported the decline of -4.32% after opening at the price of $24.29, while its closing price for the day was $23.05.

HIG’s total trading volume for the day was 8.92 million shares, versus its average volume of 5.65 million shares. Company’s current market capitalization stands at $10.20 billion along with 442.50 million shares.

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AIG insurance stock rating overweight by Evercore Partners

Best Insurance stock - AIG insurance stock rating overweight by Evercore Partners : American International Group (NYSE: AIG)‘s stock had its “overweight” rating restated by analysts at Evercore Partners in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday. They currently have a $40.00 price target on the stock.

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of American International Group in a research note to investors on Wednesday, January 16th. They now have a $45.00 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at FBR Capital initiated coverage on shares of American International Group in a research note to investors on Thursday, January 10th. They set an “outperform” rating and a $44.00 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Wells Fargo downgraded shares of American International Group from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating in a research note to investors on Thursday, January 10th.

Twelve research analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, one has issued an overweight rating, and nine have issued a hold rating to the company. The stock has a consensus rating of “overweight” and an average target price of $40.43.

American International Group traded up 1.11% on Tuesday, hitting $35.48. American International Group has a 1-year low of $24.66 and a 1-year high of $37.67. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently $34.89. The company has a market cap of $52.379 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.42.

American International Group last issued its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, November 1st. The company reported $1.00 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.88 by $0.12. Analysts expect that American International Group will post $3.77 EPS for the current fiscal year.

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is an international insurance company, serving customers in more than 130 countries.

AIG potential for join a lawsuit

AIG potential for a lawsuit : American International Group Inc, the insurer rescued by the U.S. government in 2008, drew angry condemnation from lawmakers on Tuesday after saying it may join a lawsuit that alleges the bailout terms were unfair.

A leading congressional Democrat called criticism of the deal's terms "utterly ridiculous," and former New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer - who probed AIG when he was in office - called the prospect of a suit "insulting to the public." The White House declined to comment on the potential for a lawsuit but defended the $182 billion bailout.

Meanwhile, newly elected Senator Elizabeth Warren, feared by Wall Street as a potential thorn in its side on the Senate Banking Committee, called the suit talk "outrageous" and said the company should not "bite the hand that fed them for helping them out in a crisis."

The move would be something of a shock, given that AIG just launched a high-profile television ad campaign called "Thank you, America," in which it offers the public its gratitude for the bailout. On Tuesday, the company promoted the ads on Twitter, even as it came under fire over the lawsuit.

Securities experts said AIG's board needs to consider the matter as part of its fiduciary duty, but also said it was unlikely they will actually join.

AIG said its board would meet Wednesday to discuss joining a lawsuit filed against the government by the insurer's former chief executive, Maurice "Hank" Greenberg.

Greenberg, whose Starr International owned 12 percent of AIG before its near-collapse, has accused the New York Fed of using the rescue to bail out Wall Street banks at the expense of shareholders, and of being a "loan shark" by charging exorbitant interest of 14.5 percent on the initial loan.

"If AIG enters this suit it would be the equivalent of a patient suing their doctor for saving their life," said Mark Williams, a former Federal Reserve bank examiner who teaches in the finance department at Boston University.

BUSINESS JUDGMENT

A federal judge in Manhattan already dismissed one of Greenberg's suits in November; it is being appealed.

In his ruling dated November 19, Judge Paul Engelmayer said AIG had notified the court it would hold a board meeting January 9 to discuss joining one of the suits, with a decision expected by the end of the month.

A separate suit under different legal theories is still pending in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims in Washington.

In a mid-December hearing in the Washington case, a lawyer for AIG told the court that all sides had already made three written submissions to the board and that the board would spend half the day on January 9 discussing the suit.

One expert in securities law said he doubted AIG would ultimately decide to join the case.

"All the fiduciary standards that guide board behavior would warn against joining the suit," said James Cox, a professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University School of Law in Durham, North Carolina. "I see nothing to be gained by AIG piling on, and I see a lot of downside risk."

An AIG spokesman declined to comment beyond confirming that the board would meet as planned. The deliberations were first reported by the New York Times.

'CHOICE WAS BANKRUPTCY'

The New York Fed said Tuesday there was no merit to any allegations that the bank harmed AIG.

"AIG's board of directors had an alternative choice to borrowing from the Federal Reserve and that choice was bankruptcy. Bankruptcy would have left all AIG shareholders with worthless stock," a representative of the bank said Tuesday.

Elijah Cummings, the ranking Democrat on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, acknowledged that AIG's board has a fiduciary duty to consider the lawsuit. But he also said the company had a choice in 2008 and picked what it considered the better option.

"The idea that AIG might sue the government is an unbelievable insult to our nation's taxpayers, who cleaned up the mess this firm created," he said in a statement.

Cummings' former colleague, the recently-retired Barney Frank, said he was "stunned" by the news and added that AIG was a fully willing participant in the rescue.

"There was not the hint of a suggestion of any coercion. They did this very voluntarily, very gratefully. And if the company were now to go around and join this lawsuit, that would be outrageous," Frank said in an interview.

The U.S. Treasury declined to comment. It completed its final sale of AIG stock in mid-December, concluding the bailout with what Treasury called a positive return of $22.7 billion.

AIG shares fell 0.8 percent to close at $35.65. After losing half its value in 2011, the stock rose more than 52 percent in 2012, tripling the gains of the broader S&P insurance index.

GREENBERG ROLLS ON

If AIG decides to join Greenberg's suit, it would be another legal victory for the man who once ran the world's largest insurance company but was ultimately forced to leave under a cloud of scandal.

On Monday, a federal judge ruled that New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman does not have standing to object to a $115 million settlement between AIG shareholders and the former chief executive. Schneiderman wanted the deal rejected.

The judge's ruling apparently clears the way for approval of the deal, whose broad releases would preclude New York from pursuing its high-profile 2005 fraud case against Greenberg, according to court papers.

The state case, brought by Spitzer, accuses Greenberg and former Chief Financial Officer Howard Smith of using sham transactions to mask the company's financial position.

The claims, which Greenberg and Smith have fought through three New York attorneys general, await an appeal at the state's highest court.